Match: R-SECTOR-SANCTIONS_TRADE_CONTROLS

ExxonMobil × Aktualisierte Sanktionsmeldung: ISIL (Da'esh) und Al-Kaida
Relationship: sector_topic_candidate_sanctions_trade_controls · Layer 4 · Direction: uncertain · Review status: needs_review · candidate

Evidence

evidence changed since scoring scored with 2 evidence / 0 counter-evidence item(s); the table now shows 3 / 0. Confidence is not recomputed retroactively — see Methodology (version policy).

Kind	Exact quoted text	Field	Note
sector_disclosure	Energy	company.sector	recorded from index_universe
topic_term	sanktion	regulatory_instrument.title	matched in: Aktualisierte Sanktionsmeldung: ISIL (Da'esh) und Al-Kaida
disclosed_geo_revenue	CH-attributable disclosed revenue 0 of 224,181,000,000 (period 2019-12-31)		impact-1.2 additive backfill; matched labels: none; NOT attributable (ambiguous): Non-U.S, U.S; geo-map-1 (impact-1.2)

Affected revenue share — disclosed geographic split vs CH

Company Disclosure + Calculated Metric — the disclosed inputs behind this match's exposure score (formula impact-1.2).

Disclosed label	Value (as reported — no currency asserted)	Share of disclosed total (CM)	Attribution to CH	Class	Prov.
Non-U.S	134,460,000,000	60.0% CM	not attributable (ambiguous label — excluded from the exposure numerator)	CD	ⓘ
Canada	19,735,000,000	8.8% CM	maps to CA	CD	ⓘ
United Kingdom	17,479,000,000	7.8% CM	maps to GB	CD	ⓘ
France	12,740,000,000	5.7% CM	maps to FR	CD	ⓘ
Belgium	11,644,000,000	5.2% CM	maps to BE	CD	ⓘ
Italy	10,459,000,000	4.7% CM	maps to IT	CD	ⓘ
U.S	9,723,000,000	4.3% CM	not attributable (ambiguous label — excluded from the exposure numerator)	CD	ⓘ
Australia	7,941,000,000	3.5% CM	maps to AU	CD	ⓘ

Period ending 2019-12-31; company disclosure parsed from SEC filings (provider in provenance). The exposure score's numerator is the sum of the attributable rows; ambiguous labels make it a stated lower bound.

Scores (impact-1.1)

Score	Value
Applicability	0.70
Confidence	0.78
Urgency	0.51
Exposure	0.00
Materiality	Insufficient evidence to calculate
Market Sensitivity	Insufficient evidence to calculate
Formula version	impact-1.1
Missing information	disclosed exposure figure (segment/geographic revenue); filing-level exposure confirmation (segment/geographic revenue)

Policy score set v1 (0–100)

Sub-scores exist only where a real recorded input exists (source category, legal stage, instrument type, evidence, real dates). Missing components are named with the input that would activate them — never guessed midpoints.

Component	Score	Basis / why unavailable
Source Reliability	95%	source category 'sanctions' — official sanctions authority list or feed
Legal Certainty	85%	recorded legal stage 'published' (documented map)
Applicability	70%	impact-core score (see factor breakdown below)
Exposure	0%	impact-core score (see factor breakdown below)
Materiality	Insufficient inputs	insufficient evidence — no disclosed financial figures ingested yet
Urgency	51%	impact-core score (see factor breakdown below)
Confidence	78%	impact-core score (see factor breakdown below)
Persistence	55%	instrument type 'sanction_measure' base 0.55 (documented heuristic)
Market Surprise	Insufficient inputs	requires market expectation inputs (consensus/pre-announcement pricing) — not yet ingested
Adaptability	Insufficient inputs	requires company response disclosures (filings text) — not yet ingested
Market Sensitivity	Insufficient inputs	requires price-reaction history around events — not yet computable

Triage composite: 71% normalized product (geometric mean) of the available components: applicability, confidence, legal_certainty, persistence, source_reliability, urgency. A policy-attention ranking aid — never a return forecast.

Score contributions — full breakdown

applicability = Σ(weight × value) / Σ(weight) over applicability factors; same for confidence/urgency. See Methodology.

Score	Factor	Weight	Value	Contribution	Explanation
applicability	sector_disclosed	0.50	0.80	0.400	disclosed sector 'Energy' (source: index_universe)
applicability	topic_term_match	0.50	0.60	0.300	instrument text matched term 'sanktion'
confidence	counter_evidence	0.20	1.00	0.200	0 counter-evidence item(s)
confidence	evidence_count	0.50	0.70	0.350	2 evidence item(s) attached
confidence	missing_data_penalty	0.30	0.75	0.225	1 material field(s) unavailable
exposure	disclosed_geo_share	1.00	0.00	0.000	CH-attributable disclosed revenue 0 of 224,181,000,000 (period 2019-12-31, geo-map-1 (impact-1.2); additive impact-1.2 backfill — core scores kept at their original formula version) — LOWER BOUND: Non-U.S, U.S not attributable
triage	legal_certainty	1.00	0.85	0.850	recorded legal stage 'published' (documented map)
triage	persistence	1.00	0.55	0.550	instrument type 'sanction_measure' base 0.55 (documented heuristic)
triage	source_reliability	1.00	0.95	0.950	source category 'sanctions' — official sanctions authority list or feed
urgency	publication_recency	0.60	0.51	0.307	published 44 day(s) ago

Scenario analysis

No scenario numbers are shown for ExxonMobil because no verified revenue/EPS facts are ingested yet; panels activate automatically when real filings data lands. Nothing is estimated in the meantime.

Block	State
Base / adverse / severe policy scenario deltas	insufficient verified fundamentals — activates when revenue/EPS facts are ingested
Affected revenue share by segment/geography	insufficient verified fundamentals — activates when segment/geographic revenue disclosures are ingested
Compliance-cost sensitivity	insufficient verified fundamentals — activates when revenue/EPS facts are ingested

Valuation impact

Never a price target or return forecast; activates only on verified company-disclosed figures.

Block	State
Earnings-path impact (EPS bridge)	insufficient verified fundamentals — activates when revenue/EPS facts are ingested
Multiple/terminal-value sensitivity	insufficient verified fundamentals — activates when revenue/EPS facts are ingested