Preprints & working papers

Publications

The applied regulatory, financial-crime and decision-science work, made available for discussion. Each entry gives the title, its status, a short abstract, and a link to read the full draft. The space-systems, robotics and space-law research sits separately, in the Research Lab.

Research is one specialism among several — the CV shows where it sits in the wider career; this page is where that strand goes deep.

These are preprints. They have been submitted and are pending peer review; they are circulated here for scholarly and professional discussion. Empirical figures in the applied papers are computed on synthetic or clearly-labelled illustrative data, so nothing on this page should be read as a measured result, a prediction, or legal advice.

The ARGUS-PD launch architecture rendered in 3D above Earth

Research Lab — space systems, robotics & space law The separate research strand: 4 papers, 8 working drafts plus the reproducibility annex — including the new launcher-science study and programme capstone — and 6 live interactive tools that run the papers' own screening code in your browser. open the Research Lab →

LL.M. Dissertation · University of Worcester · awarded 100%

Economic Warfare: The Unregulated War

The intellectual root of everything on this page. Cyber-economic aggression, market manipulation and proxy financial tactics sit outside effective regulation — regimes reach the principal but not the proxy. The dissertation proposes a dedicated UK legislative framework (UK-EWPRA) and led to an invitation to pursue doctoral research; FRIS, Meridian and the Magnitsky Model for AI are its operational and theoretical descendants.

Awarded 100% — highest mark available Foundation of the financial-crime & AI-governance work

Read the dissertation (PDF)

Interactive · illustrative model

The Magnitsky Model for AI — Policy Simulator

Pick an AI-driven circumvention scenario, watch the “double veil” defeat attribution, then enact targeted designations across jurisdictions and tune the cascade. The simulator scores the four channels of the paper — market access, dollar-clearing & correspondent banking, compliance de-risking, and legislative emulation — and returns a verdict: Contained, Circumvented, or Cascaded-to-compliance.

Runs fully offline in your browser Companion to the Phase II theory paper

The Magnitsky policy simulator: a designation scenario with the four cascade channels scored

Open the simulator Read the paper

Phase I

Preprints — applied systems & engineering

3 papers · submitted; pending peer review

Phase I · PreprintSubmitted; pending peer review · TechRxiv

Deterministic Peel Chains for Regulatory Compliance in Autonomous, Offline Environments

FRIS — Forensic & Regulatory Intelligence Suite

A working reference architecture for financial-crime and regulatory analysis built on three commitments: an offline, dependency-free client where no subject data leaves the analyst's machine; a deterministic “peel-chain” method that traces layered value transfers as exact integers under a checked value-conservation invariant, byte-for-byte reproducible from its inputs; and a provenance-first data model that labels every value by source and surfaces gaps rather than imputing them. It specifies the peel-chain algorithm and a 23-module engine framework sharing common deterministic primitives across beneficial-ownership tracing, sanctions and adverse-media screening, an insolvency-recovery waterfall, and a compliance knowledge base. No performance benchmarks are claimed; every numeric example is labelled illustrative.

Read paper .html · Web page

Phase I · PreprintSubmitted; pending peer review · arXiv cs.CY

Mapping Real-Time Regulatory Impacts to Asset Vulnerability Under Strict API Budgets

Meridian — regulatory impact mapping

The methodology of Meridian, a provenance-first research system that maps real-time regulatory instruments and changes onto a universe of roughly 1,300 issuers and infers potential — not measured — impact. Every value carries its own source key, timestamps, hashed raw artifact and explicit verification class; missing values are shown as missing, and an instrument is linked to a company only through a disclosed, quotable business fact. It also sets out an operating discipline for strict API budgets — a daily-cap governor, need-driven rotation, and an “outage is not absence” rule — and reports no empirical findings, only illustrative mechanism.

Read paper .html · Web page

Phase I · PreprintSubmitted; pending peer review · forecasting & operations

Comparative Efficacy of Holt-Winters, ETS and Croston Methods in Multi-Industry Rolling-Origin Backtesting

Vantage — forecasting & backtesting

A dependency-free forecasting engine implementing the classical exponential-smoothing family (SES, Holt, additive Holt-Winters), OLS regression with seasonal dummies, and Croston's method, with seasonal-naive and moving-average baselines. Rather than committing to one model, it performs per-series rolling-origin (walk-forward) backtesting and selects a champion by lowest held-out WAPE across five commercial domains with different cadences. The consistent finding is that model choice should be let to each series — notably, seasonal-naive beats Croston on every intermittent line because the intermittency is scheduled, not memoryless — using semi-synthetic, clearly-labelled benchmark data.

Read paper .html · Web page

Phase II

Theory & methodology

2 papers · submitted; pending peer review

Phase II · TheorySubmitted; pending peer review · law & policy

The Magnitsky Model for AI: Localized Legislative Cascades as a Response to AI-Driven Circumvention of International Law

Companion interactive simulator available above

Argues that AI has become the “perfected proxy” — a deniable, jurisdictionally slippery, self-executing intermediary through which actors circumvent international-legal norms while remaining formally unaccountable — and that the answer is not a new global treaty but its opposite: localised, targeted national legislation on the Magnitsky model. It theorises AI as an accountability-diffusing “double veil” (the corporate veil plus the algorithmic responsibility gap), explains why targeted designations cascade through market access, dollar-clearing, correspondent banking, compliance de-risking and legislative emulation, and proposes an original doctrinal mechanism of AI-conduct-triggered designation keyed to responsible control rather than to a completed, attributable wrong. It is tested against three worked scenarios and against the strongest objections — sovereignty, over-reach, fragmentation and due process.

Read paper Open simulator .html · Web page

Phase II · MethodologySubmitted; pending peer review

Strategic Procurement and Feasibility Modeling for Large-Scale Autonomous Systems

Domain-general systems-engineering methodology

A domain-general methodology for estimating cost, schedule and risk on very large, capital-intensive autonomous and infrastructure programmes before commitment. It integrates a work-breakdown-structure CapEx estimate with explicit uncertainty and learning-curve effects, critical-path scheduling under deep uncertainty via an event-sourced Monte-Carlo engine (Helm), explicit go/no-go feasibility gates, a procurement layer (make-versus-buy, long-lead management), and an integrated feasibility index triangulated against reference-class benchmarks. A fully de-identified worked illustration on a generic autonomous-freight network demonstrates the method end to end; all numbers are notional and clearly labelled.

Read paper .html · Web page

Notes

Methods & positioning notes

1 note

Positioning noteCompanion to a portfolio project

Sentinel — A Methods & Positioning Note

Sentinel — AI-governance & export-control readiness assessor

Why a regulated AI programme has to answer two legal questions at once — is it lawful to build and use (EU AI Act risk-tiering) and is it lawful to move (EU Dual-Use Regulation 2021/821 and Wassenaar export screening) — and how Sentinel answers both in one deterministic, fully-offline pass. The note sets out the rules-engine method, in which every line is tagged legal fact, reasoned assessment or verify and dated to the 2025–26 Digital Omnibus; the “regulated-by-design” thesis (human authority, auditability and export screening built into the control layer); and explicit scope limits — decision-support, not legal advice, and not an official control classification.

Read the note Open Sentinel .html · Web page

Reports

Reports (independent grey literature)

3 reports · deposited on Zenodo

Report · grey literatureDeposited · Zenodo

Insolvency Avoidance & Executive Crisis Intervention Model — A Simulated Charity Governance Case Study

Independent advisory / technical report

A simulated charity-governance case study modelling how the board of a mid-sized UK charity should respond to a projected structural deficit compounded by the sudden loss of its COO and Director of Finance. It sets out a crisis-governance playbook — an emergency board cadence, absolute cash controls, forensic ring-fencing of restricted grant funds, and proactive regulator communication — each intervention mapped to UK statutory frameworks (Companies Act 2006 directors' duties; Insolvency Act 1986; TUPE 2006; Charity Commission guidance and Serious Incident Reporting; Charities SORP / FRS 102; and CIGA 2020 moratorium options). The entity is fictional and every figure is illustrative; the document is an explicit portfolio demonstration.

Read cover page .html · Web page

Report · grey literatureDeposited · Zenodo

Compliance-Led Operational Architecture — A Legal & Compliance Operating Model for Publicly-Funded Education Delivery

Independent advisory / technical report

A redacted, illustrative case study of a compliance-led operating model for a multi-site, publicly-funded education provider (a community interest company), 2018–2024, written from the seat of a Director / Head of Legal & Compliance. It migrates a paper-based baseline for sensitive learner data to evidence-led, audit-ready digital delivery while managing public-funding clawback risk — with controls mapped across UK GDPR / DPA 2018, safeguarding (KCSIE, Working Together), the Prevent duty, ESFA/ILR funding assurance and health & safety. Its centrepiece is an automated legal-compliance pipeline: a Python change-detection runner over GOV.UK / HSE / ESFA, a rules-based urgency classifier, a documented legal-decision hub, and controlled policy/training rollout with comprehension checks. Illustrative outcomes: >95% training completion within 72 hours of a policy change, funding-error rates cut from 12% to under 1%, sub-15-minute audit retrieval, and zero reportable breaches. A redacted, illustrative account of the author’s own operating experience; individuals and third parties are not identified, and nothing confidential, privileged, or NDA-protected is reproduced.

Read cover page .html · Web page

Report · grey literatureDeposited · Zenodo

Project Finance & Structuring Advisory: A Utility-Scale PV Project on a Philippine Island Province

Independent advisory / technical report

A project-finance and structuring case study, drawn from the author’s own advisory work: a proposed utility-scale solar farm on a Philippine island province, raising USD 2M for a 2 MW first phase under a 25-year power-supply agreement with the provincial electric cooperative. It recalibrates an over-stated “80% efficiency” claim into standard metrics (performance ratio ~0.80, capacity factor ~18–21%, ~1,575 MWh/yr) and shows that the pivotal insight is capital-structural: a pure-equity raise would over-dilute the founders (>60% control lost), whereas senior debt through an SPV preserves control. It analyses the Philippine reforms that opened the sector — 100% foreign ownership of solar SPVs (DOJ Opinion 21 / DC2022-11-0034), 99-year leases (RA 12252) and the DOE Certificate-of-Authority permitting path — and flags politically-exposed-person (PEP) and FCPA governance exposure as a gating risk. The jurisdiction and regulatory analysis are real; the project, counterparties and location are anonymised, and no individual is identified.

Read the report (PDF) Cover page .pdf · 5 pages