Vantage
Foresight · Precision · Insight
A multi-industry forecasting sandbox that demonstrates how a single prediction engine adapts to five different commercial use cases — with real models, honest data labelling, and plain-English explanations.
Model Selection
Runs Holt-Winters, exponential smoothing, regression, Croston (intermittent demand), seasonal-naive and moving-average baselines. The champion is the model with the lowest back-tested error — not the fanciest name.
Rolling-Origin Backtesting
Every model is tested by hiding real history and forecasting forward, repeatedly. Performance is measured with MAE, RMSE, MAPE, sMAPE, WAPE and bias — not on training data, on held-out actuals.
Live Recalibration
Enter a new actual and the forecast updates immediately. The engine classifies the reading (normal / anomalous / structural), re-estimates the level, and explains in plain English what changed and why.
Scenario Comparison
Base, optimistic and conservative cases compared side by side — with stockout risk, revenue and margin computed per scenario. Custom scenarios for contracts, campaigns and constraints.
Data Confidence
Every data source is labelled: real historical, simulated, user-entered, contracted, pipeline or public. The system never silently mixes real and synthetic data and always tells you what would improve the forecast.
Industry-Aware
Each industry gets its own metrics, assumptions, language, constraints and model families. The maths is the product — the skin flexes to match the client. A brewery is not a SaaS startup with hops.
Vantage Forecasting · Foresight · Precision · Insight
Engine: Holt-Winters + ETS + Croston + OLS regression · Back-tested on rolling origins · Dependency-free